Slightly above freezing Wednesday in El Calafate with clouds broken to overcast at FL70. Very little mountain wave. Surface winds 15 kts gusting to 30 kts early Wednesday morning, dropping to 10 kts gusting to 20 kts out of the west-northwest during the day. Some light rain is possible in the afternoon.
Mostly sunny and warmer today in El Calafate, except for a few high, thin clouds at FL300. Winds will be westerly at the surface and aloft and generally 50-80 kts above FL700. Despite the westerly winds, the WRF model is showing only weak wave today, with vertical velocities generally below 1000 fpm. The wave does not look good for Wednesday, either, and there will be lower clouds and rain possible.
Monday and Tuesday should be generally favorable for wave flying. There may be high overcast at FL300, but otherwise generally cloud-free at lower levels. Some waves should be present each, but vertical velocities will not be as great as previously forecast and will be in the range of 600–1200 fps below FL 200. Winds aloft will be from the west-southwest on Monday, becoming more westerly on Tuesday. It may be difficult to find vertical velocities above 800 fps on Tuesday above FL 180 as the waves propagate eastward and dissipate.
A “balmy” day today in El Calafate with temperatures reaching the low 40’s. Winds generally 10 to 15 kts and variable in direction at the surface. Above FL100 expect winds to be generally 50+ kts from the northwest. The upper reaches of Lago Argentino, near 50S 72.3W should be favorable for wave, but it will be challenging to get to FL200, with a high thin overcast.Wednesday should be a down day with clouds and rain.
Forecast for Monday is for a few snow flurries in the pre-dawn hours. The afternoon will have scattered mid- to high-level clouds during the afternoon, but dry with high temperatures near or just above freezing. Winds generally northerly and light at El Calafate. More extensive clouds over the mountain ridge line with some snow or drizzle persisting through the afternoon. Winds aloft generally westerly and > 50 kts above FL90. Tuesday afternoon will bring scattered low- to mid-level clouds with high overcast and some light drizzle at El Calafate. Winds aloft from the northwest from 50-80 kts.
WRF is still down due to NCEP changes in GFS files, but a fix may be available Monday.