Dr. Jim Means of WeatherExtreme wins weather forecasting competition

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Jim Means, Ph.D., was one of three winners of the 2014 May Grey/June Gloom forecasting competition. To come up with his forecast of the number of cloudy days, Jim combined data from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF) 30 day model run with his own knowledge of the effects of the nascent El Nino on Southern California. Additionally, a recognition of the dominant late winter and early spring patterns– which were favoring above normal sunshine–was also taken into account.

The correct forecast this year was 15 gray/gloom days (we had 17 last year).
We had 6 days in May; 9 days in June. This number is the lowest we’ve had since we started tracking in 2004.
Only 2 of the days were complete gloom days while 8 of the days met the minimum 2 gloom obs required.
During May/June the temperatures at San Diego airport were near normal while temperatures to our north at Los Angeles were warmer than normal.
The 850mb temperatures were higher than normal as were the heights at 700mb. For comparison the same plots from 2013 are attached.

Congratulations to all winners!!
Douglas Alden
Mike Dettinger
Jim Means