WeatherExtreme Forecast Discussion 8/17/2017 2015Z

Saturday offers the best hope of flying until Wednesday. A 984 millibar low moves onshore west of El Calafate on Friday morning, spreading light snow across the area, with one or two centimeters in the early morning, with a few flurries possible throughout the day Friday. Clearing overnight with west winds at the surface backing to 50 kts from the west-southwest at FL200 and increasing to more than 100 kts higher in the column. The polar jet core will be positioned just north of El Calafate on Saturday with highest level winds exceeding 150 kts, supporting a vigorous secondary wave.

Another storm spreads inland overnight and during the day Sunday, with an extremely intense 960 mb passing by the southern tip of South America on Monday. Precipitation looks like it will start as snow on Sunday, changing to rain on Monday. The complex series of storms finally exits the region Tuesday, leaving Wednesday as the next flying day. Thursday is a possibility, too, before the next system arrives.

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