WeatherExtreme Forecast Discussion 8/31 2025Z

A weak cold front exits the region Saturday morning leaving partly cloudy skies and westerly winds behind in its wake. The polar night jet should be positioned somewhat south of El Calafate with 175 kt winds at the 10 mb level, but a small shift in the position could make a big difference for flying. As of now updrafts look only modest on Saturday, at best, but that could change if the position of the westerlies shifts northward. Sunday is a mixed bag, winds aloft improve and there will presumably be better updrafts, but clouds may make flying conditons marginal, with overcast below FL100. Monday is pre-frontal and may be better, but wind direction will be crucial, and right now it’s looking too northerly.

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